Short-Term Trading: November 2006

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy(ETF) (PBW)

The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy(ETF) (AMEX:PBW) is developing a very interesting accumulation pattern with a number of positive MACD divergences. From the chart perspective it is developing a bullish triangle. Objective to the upside is 20$.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX)

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) afetr an impressive up leg has printed a top formation in the daily chart. You can see the sxhaustion up gap, the 2 doji candles at the top and finally the bearish wide range day. Prices are now testing the first supports. There is no divergence of the MACD indicator. As the trend is very strong we might also see prices recover and print new highs, although in the weekly time frame the pattern that is going to be printed for the week is quite bearish. I would expect a tentative move to the upside, but my overall assessment is about a test of the 90$ level. Lower support at 79$.

Federated Dept Stores (FD)

Federated Dept Stores (FD), after a negative MACD divergence associated to a prolonged congestion at the top, has printed a fast sell-off. At the end of a short term rebound, the stock has printed a wide ranging down day indicating that prices will likely continue to the down side and test supports at 39$.

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 100 Index 29 Nov

The aim of the pattern is to profit from false breakouts. When the trend is strong, the reversal will not be long. However, sometimes reversals can be quite profitable. It is a typical swing trading pattern, working well in volatile markets. The rules are:

Buys:
- The previous 20-day low has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or below the previous 20-day low.
- The entry buy-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day low.

Sells:
- The previous 20-day high has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or above the previous 20-day high.
- The entry sell-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day high.

Entergy Corporation (NYSE:ETR) printed a sell setup for the next session

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC) printed a buy setup for the next session

S&P 500 - Reversal Pattern

In the Figure, you can see the Index stocks that have the Slow Stochastic oversold/overbought and have printed a bullish/bearish candlestick pattern, displaying therefore a potential reversal.

I indicated also the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close.

Bullish pattern (oversold stochastic+bullish candlestick):
Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC)
Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE:RF)
OfficeMax Incorporated (NYSE:OMX)

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) has printed a bearish candlestick pattern at the top in coincidence with a negative divergence of the MACD indicator. The stock yesterday accelerated to the downside indicating that lower prices are ahead. First short term support at 38.2$. Next 37.25$.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

The following stocks have printed a bearish engulfing:
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)
General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM)
The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD)
Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO)

AT&T Inc (T) has printed a bullish engulfing.

The Index has printed today a wide range day to the downside. The last time it printed a similar range was back in July. Finally a correction has started after a negative divergence of MACD. We should see lower prices in the short term. First support at 11985. Next support at 11670 but it is important to see the Index behavior in the next sessions. When a trend is very strong you can have sell-offs that eventually are entry points. It is early to say that the uptrend is over, however, after a divergence and a prolonged uptrend (4 months), I would not open long positions now, but rather wait and see how the correction develops. There are several good candidates for shorts.

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) has printed a negative divergence of MACD and a bearish candlestck pattern at the top. Prices should now retest at least the 20.40$ level, which represents the previous pivot low.

Bubbles

The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction!
READ

Reuters/Jeff CRB Non-Energy ER

The Index has printed a top on 9 November. Following to that you can see 3 bearish candlestick patterns. The trend is still positive, however, in these conditions the retest of the previous high, a typical short term type of trade might fail. I would not trade long positions in the short term until you see a bullish pattern. It is more likely the retest of the 128 level in my opinion.

See also the excellent article linked, which explains quite well the opportunities of investing in the commodities Index and concepts such as total return, excess return, contango, roll yoeld, collateral yield.
READ

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE:BNI)
Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI)
El Paso Corporation (NYSE:EP)
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY)
The Southern Company (NYSE:SO)
OfficeMax Incorporated (NYSE:OMX)
Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE:TXN)
Hartford Financial Services (NYSE:HIG)

Interesting Sunday Links

Black Friday Sales Jump 6% vs. 2005
By TSC Staff
READ

The Best ETF for 2007: iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend
By Selena Maranjian
READ

Wal-Mart sees weak sales as holiday season starts
By Emily Kaiser
READ

Big crowds, small sales
Wal-Mart sees sluggish sales for November, including Black Friday results. Will other retailers fare better?
READ

Treasuries Gain This Week as Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Increases
By Annie Pinkert
READ

Dollar's Weekly Loss Sends Currency to 19-Month Low Versus Euro
By Daniel Kruger
READ

FTSE falls, greenback pounded
READ

China's growth may lift yet another notch
READ

S&P 500 - Reversal Pattern

In the Figure, you can see the Index stocks that have the Slow Stochastic oversold/overbought and have printed a bullish/bearish candlestick pattern, displaying therefore a potential reversal.

I indicated also the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close.

Bearish pattern (overbought stochastic+bearish candlestick):
ADC Telecommunications (NASDAQ:ADCT)
Allergan, Inc. (NYSE:AGN)
AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO)
Brunswick Corporation (NYSE:BC)
Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO)
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG)
Family Dollar Stores, Inc (NYSE:FDO)
H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE:HNZ)
Janus Capital Group Inc. (NYSE:JNS)
Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT)
Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON)
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR)
Pulte Homes, Inc. (NYSE:PHM)
Robert Half International Inc. (NYSE:RHI)
SAFECO Corporation (NASDAQ:SAFC)
SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE:STI)
St. Jude Medical, Inc. (NYSE:STJ)
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO)
Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM)

Bullish pattern (oversold stochastic+bullish candlestick):
The Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS)
Hospira, Inc. (NYSE:HSP)
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU)

Stock Markets Review 24 Nov - Emini

The uptrend started in July is characterized by very low volatility.
What I call "speed", that range/moving avg. close is at extermely low levels in the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow. What is peculiar is that the May sell-off printed increasing volatility indicating that an impulse to the downside was ongoing. The subsequent July move occurred on lower ranges and it was interpreted by many as a rebound. But time passed and stocks continued to be accumulated constantly without, however, the emotional participation of the public in the move. That is the best condition for trend followers, where you have a stable upternd with few and limited pullbacks, which display some profit taking. The breakout of previous highs was not characterized by any pullback or increased volatility. Prices just continued higher at their regular pace.
Actually, I was not expecting this type of behavior. I was expecting at a certain point that markets would resume their direction to the downside where the impulse had been printed. The interesting point is that I have not sold yet my long positions, but I have been afraid to increase my exposure in the market. Lately, I have even opened a short on the S&P and I am still in pain.

What can we expect now?
Besides an impressive continued decline in volatility, the trend is not displaying particular signs of weakness. There is a slight negative divergence of oscillators, but it has not been confirmed by prices or any candlestick pattern yet.
I believe that after 4 months, the trend could pause for a while. 1365 would represent a first support in the short term.

From the fundamental perspective, the slowdown of the economy should impact on corporate profits sooner or later. The break of the US Dollar could indicate that the weakness of the economy might be more serious than expected. I am not sure that lower interest rates might compensate the impact of lower profits in the next future.

The market will say the last word as ususal.

For the moment the public enjoys higher prices and prepares for the shopping season.
Normally, the public joins the club of the bulls when the move is almost over.
As far as the different sectors are concerned, I continue to believe that defensive sectors should be priviledged. So far, however, growth stocks have been performing much better during the past 4 months pushed by the expectation of lower rates. In this type of industry, however, slightly lower revenues impact heavily on net profits.

How is it possible not to see some type of impact from the slowing economy?

Cramer Picks 22 Nov

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Cramer picks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.
The following stocks have printed a hanging man:
Nice Systems Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:NICE)
Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NASDAQ:NDAQ)

The following has printed a hammer:
The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW)

The following stock has printed a bearish engulfing:
Family Dollar Stores, Inc (NYSE:FDO)

The following stock has printed a bullish engulfing:
Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (NYSE:HVT)

The following stocks have printed a doji:
L-1 Identity Solutions Inc. (NYSE:ID)
NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX)
Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG)
Georgia Gulf Corporation (NYSE:GGC)
Intermec Inc. (NYSE:IN)
Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC)

EarthLink, Inc. (ELNK)

EarthLink, Inc. (NASDAQ:ELNK), the internet service provider, has printed an impressive downtrend during the past year.
It has printed, however, multiple positive divergences of the MACD indicator as you can see in the chart. A hammer printed on 13 November after a down gap might mark a relative low. There is the possibility at least for a short term rebound toward the 7.15 and 7.50$ objectives. It is a risky setup, however, as the stock has not followed the general market uptrend.

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index - 24 Nov

The aim of the pattern is to profit from false breakouts. When the trend is strong, the reversal will not be long. However, sometimes reversals can be quite profitable. It is a typical swing trading pattern, working well in volatile markets. The rules are:

Buys:
- The previous 20-day low has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or below the previous 20-day low.
- The entry buy-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day low.

Sells:
- The previous 20-day high has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or above the previous 20-day high.
- The entry sell-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day high.

The Index stocks that present a sell setup for the next session are:
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV)
Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK)

The Index stocks that present a buy setup for the next session are:
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW)
Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS)
Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE:ODP)

Asset Class Performance

Emerging markets both stocks and bonds have done very well during the past 3 years. Is it the case to continue this successful diversification or there are elements to believe that things are going to change next year?
My humble opinion in this matter is that if there is a slowdown in the global economy emerging markets will be hit more badly than more mature economies. The fact to understand is whether and how much the US slowdown is going to impact globally, provided that Asia is less dependant on the US than in the past.

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE:BNI)
Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI)
The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW)
El Paso Corporation (NYSE:EP)
OfficeMax Incorporated (NYSE:OMX)
Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB)
The Southern Company (NYSE:SO)
Wachovia Corporation (NYSE:WB)
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY)

Medtronic, Inc. (MDT)

Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT) has printed an impressive bullish reversal island.

See a previous post that describes the pattern:
LINK

Books - Stephen Bigalow - High Profit Candlestick Patterns

High profit trading patterns provides a straight-forward approach to exploit and combine Japanese Candlestick charting with effective Western technical analysis.
Candlestick signals visually help traders make decisions quickly and effectively. When integrated with Western technical analysis, it produces a valuable investment methodology.

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index

The aim of the pattern is to profit from false breakouts. When the trend is strong, the reversal will not be long. However, sometimes reversals can be quite profitable. It is a typical swing trading pattern, working well in volatile markets. The rules are:

Buys:
- The previous 20-day low has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or below the previous 20-day low.
- The entry buy-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day low.

Sells:
- The previous 20-day high has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or above the previous 20-day high.
- The entry sell-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day high.

The Index stocks that present a sell setup for the next session are:

Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE:APD)
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)
CBS Corporation (NYSE:CBS)
Rockwell Collins, Inc. (NYSE:COL)
Centex Corporation (NYSE:CTX)
D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI)
Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV)
H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE:HNZ)
Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN)
Loews Corporation (NYSE:LTR)
Lexmark International, Inc. (NYSE:LXK)
SAFECO Corporation (NASDAQ:SAFC)
Tektronix, Inc. (NYSE:TEK)
VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN)
Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM)

Map Of The Market

Interesting Links

http://www.smartmoney.com/marketmap/ LINK

NASDAQ-100 Dynamic Heatmap®
LINK

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

The following stocks have printed a bullish engulfing:
Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ)
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C)
Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON)
3M Company (NYSE:MMM)
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO)

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) has already printed 5 consecutive negative MACD divergences. Although you can have many divergences before a trend reversal materialize, risk of opening long positions is higher at this level. PG is printing the lowest volatility level since January 2006. I would expect a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. To the downside. However, anticipating might be very costly. That is why I would not open long positions on PG at the moment.

Up Big In Post Market

From Trade Ideas

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index - S&P 400 Midcap

The aim of the pattern is to profit from false breakouts. When the trend is strong, the reversal will not be long. However, sometimes reversals can be quite profitable. It is a typical swing trading pattern, working well in volatile markets. The rules are:

Buys:
- The previous 20-day low has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or below the previous 20-day low.
- The entry buy-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day low.

Sells:
- The previous 20-day high has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or above the previous 20-day high.
- The entry sell-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day high.

The Index stocks that present a sell setup for the next session are:
E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation (NYSE:ET)
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc (NYSE:HOT)
Jones Apparel Group, Inc. (NYSE:JNY)
Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE:KIM)
Simon Property Group, Inc (NYSE:SPG)
Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO)
Blyth, Inc. (NYSE:BTH)
Highwoods Properties, Inc. (NYSE:HIW)
Hospitality Properties Trust (NYSE:HPT)
Regency Centers Corp. (NYSE:REG)
Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE:RS)

The Index stocks that present a buy setup for the next session are:
CA, Inc. (NYSE:CA)
ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE:CAG)
Caremark Rx, Inc. (NYSE:CMX)
CVS Corporation (NYSE:CVS)
Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ)

Low Volatility Setup - DJIA

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM)
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)

Performance

An update on sector performance during the past 4 months.
Technology continues to lead. Technology, industrial ,materials are outperforming the other sectors. They benefit from the lower interest rates outlook. Markets are still not taking into account that the slowdown together with lower interest rates will bring also lower corporate profits, although the big technology firms have delocalized their production and market their products globally. The perception is that the world economy will continue to grow at a sustained pace without particular negative influence due to the US slowdown. We'll see. My opinion, however, is that defensive sectors should be priviledged in the current scenario. Markets are saying that I am wrong. And markets are aòways right (may be not always but most of the times).

General Motors Corporation (GM)

General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM) has been moving within a rising channel since last August. Prices have printed negative divergences of MACD in coincidence with new highs . At point A it seemed that the uptrend was over when GM printed a wide ranging day to the upside. As a failure of that pattern, prices printed new highs testing the upper trendline (point B). The acceleration to the downside of Monday (the biggest down range since 6 October) indicates that prices are likely moving to test the lower terndline at 33$ as a first objective. There are no elements for the moment to believe that the uptrend is over, however, indicators signal that there may be a move to the downside. Interestingly, GM is printing a very low volatility level, the lowest since February 2005. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future.
At the same time I would expect that a slowdown of the economy would impact on the automaker business. The market for the moment is assessing that lower future interest rates will manage to keep the economy going. For sure, however, we'll see the slowdown impact corporate profits (and losses).

CBOE Technology Index ($TXX)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

The following stocks have printed a bullish engulfing:
Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE:CSC)
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ:LLTC)
Motorola, Inc. (NYSE:MOT)
Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM)
Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE:TXN)
Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ:XLNX)

The Index continues its move to the upside. This uptrend has been characterized by low volatility and high directionality, a paradise for trend followers. The Index is developing a 4-bar congestion phase in coincidence with a slight divergence of MACD. Not enough to say that a reversal is about to happen, for the moment.

Interesting Links

What's Driving The Dollar?
by: By Joseph Trevisani

READ

Commodities' Biggest Losers and Winners: Who Came Out Ahead in 2006…and What’s to Come in 2007
by: Darin Newsom
READ

A Look At Two Thousand Six: Transition or Turning Point
by: Robert F. Dieli
READ

Trading Magazines

Magazines have been for years the primary source of education and information for traders and investors. Editors perceive the web as a challenge for magazines to find interesting and valuable new content in order to continue and attract readers. Most of them actually have adapted their business model exploiting new opportunities offered by the web. For example, they offer premium access to their database of articles or have developed online stores. Others manage premium sites which provide technical analysis or other services to traders. Magazines, nowadays, can be found as printed issues or are available even online. Currency Trader and Options Trader, for example, can be downloaded online in pdf format free of charge. This interesting business model is based on advertising published on the online magazine. Quite interestingly, during the past years, new magazines have emerged offering printed and online subscriptions and contributing to make education and information much easier and accessible also to the average trader. Magazines normally, offer quite specialized content to their readers. You can find pure technical analysis magazines such as TASC, or magazines dedicated to specific products such as currencies, options or futures. Others, like Active Trader, provide information about trading, from technology to strategies, reporting to readers the experience of well known traders. Very interesting is also the focus on trading systems in all of their aspects, such as testing data and characteristics. Here I have listed some of the most popular magazines:

Futures
http://www.futuresmag.com

Traders World
http://www.tradersworld.com

Traders Magazine
http://www.tradersmagazine.com

Active Trader
http://www.activetradermag.com

Stocks & Commodities
http://www.traders.com/

Traders'
http://www.traders-mag.com

Currency Trader
http://www.currencytradermag.com

Futures Truth Magazine
http://www.futurestruth.com/

Barron's
http://www.barronsmag.com

SFO Magazine
http://www.sfomag.com

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Cisco Systems (CSCO) after an up gap at the end of a more than 55% up leg in only 3 months is printing a 6 bar congestion. The candle printed the day of the gap is called BELT HOLD (Yorikiri).

The Bearish Belt Hold is a long black candle that has gapped up in an uptrend.
From it’s opening point, it moved lower for the rest of the day. The longer the body of
the Belt Hold, the more significant the reversal.

Should prices exit the congestion to the downside and close the open gap, that would initiate weakness on the stock. The gap would qualify as an exhaustion gap.

Google Inc (GOOG)

Google Inc (GOOG) below the 490$ level could open a weakness phase. Prices have printed a new high in coincidence with a MACD indicator negative divergence and are now developing a very short term congestion.

News Corporation (NWS)

News Corporation (NYSE:NWS) has printed a top in coincidence with a negative divergence of MACD. The 22$ support is important. If prices enter the previous trading range we could see weakness ahead and prices retest the 21.15$ level.

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup

Lamar Advertising Company (NASDAQ:LAMR)
Sepracor Inc. (NASDAQ:SEPR)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO)
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (NYSE:WTM)

have printed a sell turtle soup plus one setup.

Warwick Valley Telephone Company (NASDAQ:WWVY) has printed a buy setup

See here for the pattern details:
READ

Interesting Links

Value LIne
Value Line Reports for The Dow 30
READ

http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/

Low Volatility Setup - Nasdaq 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AMLN)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST)
Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTXS)
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY)
Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLS)

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) is developing a long congestion (22 bars) after a down gap. The exit should provide volatility and directionality. To the downside?

AMEX Semiconductor Index ($SIS)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

The following stock printed a hanging man on Friday:
Altera Corp. (NASDAQ:ALTR)
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX)
Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVLS)

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index

The aim of the pattern is to profit from false breakouts. When the trend is strong, the reversal will not be long. However, sometimes reversals can be quite profitable. It is a typical swing trading pattern, working well in volatile markets. The rules are:

Buys:
- The previous 20-day low has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or below the previous 20-day low.
- The entry buy-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day low.

Sells:
- The previous 20-day high has to be at least three days earlier. The close for the day must be at or above the previous 20-day high.
- The entry sell-stop is placed the next day at the earlier 20-day high.

The Index stocks that present a sell setup for the next session are:
Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)
First Data Corporation (NYSE:FDC)
Masco Corporation (NYSE:MAS)
Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX)
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X)

A buy setup:
PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PPG)
Wendy's International (NYSE:WEN)

Wendy's International (WEN)

Wendy's International (NYSE:WEN) on Friday printed a down gap and a wide range day. The stock had printed a double top in coincidence with a negative divergence of MACD. My opinion is that the stock in the short term will move to test lower support levels. First objective at about 31$.

Wendy's International (NYSE:WEN) said on Friday that it expects to buy back about 19 percent of its currently outstanding common shares. Wendy plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends and intend to buy back up to about 22.2 million of the shares for no less than $33 and no more than $36 each.

For details see:
UPDATE 1-Wendy's to buy back about 19 pct of its shares
Reuters
READ

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE:ATI)
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)
General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT)
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY)

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) has printed a bearish reversal island in coinceidence with a negative divergence of MACD. Prices should continue to the downside in the short term.

The Starbucks Corporation said that its fourth-quarter profit slipped 5 percent.
Starbucks posted net earnings of $117.3 million. Revenue for the quarter was $2 billion, up 20 percent from $1.66 billion last year.

Starbucks Posts 5% Drop in Fourth-Quarter Profit
READ

ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has finally printed a bearish candlestick pattern, although prices have partially recovered in the after hours.
In fact, the Amex Oil Index (XOI) declined 2.5% at 1,148.29 as crude for December delivery slumped at $56.26 per barrel on the NYMEX.

Thursday's bar is the widest range to the downside since the end of 2005. Although the uptrend is very strong, this might be the signal that something is changing in the market. My opinion is that it is likely to see lower prices in the short term. Wide range days normally indicate emotional reactions by investors and fresh money from the public that enters or exit the market. The high of this bar now becomes a significant resistance.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) has printed a bearish candlestick pattern in coincidence with a negative divergence of the MACD indicator. The 17$ area is the first support.

AMEX Telecom Index ($PHN)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

Still far from May high, the Index is moving within a slightly converging channel. At present it is testing the upper trendline. Momentum is low. I would expect a correction here given that some important stocks of the Index have started a move to the downside.

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ADR) (ERIC) has printed a bullish engulfing.

Tellabs, Inc. (NASDAQ:TLAB) has printed a bearish pattern.

Nortel Networks Corporation (NYSE:NT), Qwest Communications International Inc.
(NYSE:Q) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) are developing a downtrend, that should continue in the short term.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has printed a bearish candlestick pattern in coincidence with a negative divergence of the MACD indicator. The bar printed yesterday has the highest range to the downside since 21 September. Prices could test the 38.2$ level.

Dow Jones Transportation ($TRAN)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

The Index is printing a negative divergence of MACD and a turtle soup plus one setup.
If prices go below the previous day's high there is a possibility of a short tem trade to the downside.

Alexander & Baldwin (NASDAQ:ALEX)
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRW)
Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. (NYSE:OSG)

Stock Market Commentary

Technical Analysis & Stock Charts with Tim Knight
Burying the Bear
READ

I sympathize with Tim Knight.
He wrote: "See this towel? It's 100% cotton. And I just threw it in".

I have not been bearish since July, however, I can say for sure that I was not expecting to see the market breakout May highs without any type of pullback. Actually, I was expecting a false breakout and prices enter the previous range again.

That is because I was seen the May-July sell off as a first leg to the downside. As the market was strong, I figured out a retest of the previous top. It had to be taken into account. That's history. What happened to me is tat I have not opened new long positions lately and missed to increase the percentage of my portfolio invested in stocks. I still have not sold my existing long positions because at a certain point I understood that at least I had to leave my profits run. I guess this is what happened to many people.

THe mistake was made 2 days ago when I opened a short on the emini S&P, thinking that the market was due to move to the downside at least in the short-term. Not at all.
I am still suffering and I am keeping my towel ready to be thrown in. This bull market will continue until the bears capitulate definitively.

What I cannot figure out, besides technical analysis, is why this market is running based on future lower interest rates without taking into account that a slowdown of the economy will bring also lower corporate profits.

The market has now developed a negative MACD divergence, but only if prices return quickly below 1393 we can assess this last move as a bull trap. Difficult to say and most of all difficult and risky to bet on it.

HQuotes.com Equity Curve Random Generator

Interesting to generate equity curves based on win/loss ratio and win prob.
LINK

Trading Blog Links

The yield curve and the term premium
Econbrowser
READ

MBA: Rates Fall and Mortgage Applications Rise
Calculated Risk
READ

Inflation and Sales Faltering: Fed Ease Ahead as Real Interest Rates are Now Sharply Rising
Nouriel Roubini's Blog READ

GSTI Multimedia Networking Index ($GIP)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.
ADC Telecommunications (NASDAQ:ADCT)
Comverse Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMVT)
have printed a bearisk engulfing.

Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ:CIEN)
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:JNPR)
Redback Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:RBAK)
have printed a bullish engulfing.

The Index is still below the May level, whilst the broader market is printing new highs. Tueesday's up long candle indicates new fresh money in the market and likely higher prices in the near future. Contrarians may note that there is a turtle soup plus one setup. If prices return within the previous trading range below 131.27. There is also a negative MACD divergence associated.

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE:BDK)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE:BNI)
El Paso Corporation (NYSE:EP)
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX)
Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:HET)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
United Technologies (NYSE:UTX)
Wachovia Corporation (NYSE:WB)
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY)

CBOE Gold Index ($GOX)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX) has printed a hammer.

The Index on the daily chart is retesting the upper trendline after the breakout to the downside of the triangle.
In the weekly chart it is developing a bearish consolidation formation.

Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)

Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY) is developing a very long congestion (more than 40 bars). Volatility is at the lowest level since August 2005. From here you would expect a fast increase in volatility and directionality at the breakout of the congestion area.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.A) hit an all-time high last week at 108,800. The trend is strong.
See the Donaldson Capital: Rising Dividend Investing post " What's Berkshire Hathaway Worth, Anyway?"
READ

"Our model suggests that the fair value of Berkshire is over $105,000. We would expect that book value will grow by low double digits in 2007. That would push its fair value even higher".

Technically, I would not be a buyer at these levels. I prefer to buy retracements and pullbacks to retest previous highs for short term trades. Prices are overextended and although the trend is quite strong the risk of a correction is high.

Bollinger Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Its value at 11.93 is the highest since May 2004. I would expect volatility to decrease and prices correct toward its rising moving average.

Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX)

Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) is developing a triangle after an up leg. Volatility is at the lowest levels since December 2005. You might expect an increase in volatility and directionality from here. I would apply a breakout technique without anticipating the direction of the breakout (normally in this situation it should be to the upside).

Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)

Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) currently markets ethanol in several western states including California, Nevada, Arizona and Oregon. The company's mission is to become the Western United State's leading marketer and producer of renewable fuels. The product line currently emphasizes clean-burning corn-based ethanol. PEIX is in the process of developing three ethanol plants, expecting to begin construction at the beginning of 2007. When combined with the existing sites in Madera, California, and Boardman, Oregon, the company reported a total annual nameplate capacity of 220 million gallons by mid-2008.

Technically, PEIX has developed multiple positive divergences of MACD. The breakout of the 18$ level might project prices towards the test of the 20$ resistance. I believe this is an interesting sector. Volatility is high, but the stock could be progressively accumulated. Risk is high and the outcome of the investment depends heavily on energy prices. However, technically, there are elements to believe in a move to the upside.

US Dollar Links

Dollar Drops This Week as China Says It Will Diversify Reserves
By Daniel Kruger
READ

Nervousness at talk of diversifying forex
OliviaChung
READ

Fresh high for yuan on central bank remarks
READ

Dollar Hit By Chinese Comments
Shu-Ching Jean Chen and R.M. Schneiderman
READ

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has printed a candlestick bearish pattern in coincidence with multiple MACD negative divergences.

Saturday Links About Housing

UBS sees home prices down 10% in 2007
By Janet Morrissey
READ

Desperate Realtors... Desperate Retailers... Desperate Housewives...
Nouriel Roubini
READ

The Coming 2007 Recession Has Already Started in Many Sectors of the Economy...
Nouriel Roubini
READ

Schwab Chart: Builder Confidence vs. S&P 500
Calculated Risk
READ

Richard W. Fisher
Confessions of a Data Dependent
READ

Mortgage rates and new home sales
Econbrowser
READ

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE:BDK)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE:BNI)
El Paso Corporation (NYSE:EP)
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX)
Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:HET)
Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC)
Wachovia Corporation (NYSE:WB)
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY)

UK Interest Rates Links

The Big Question: How much higher will interest rates go, and are these rises necessary?
By Philip Thornton
READ

Bank poised to raise interest rates amid fears of trouble ahead
MPC ready to err on side of caution with .25% rise and chance of more to come
Larry Elliott
READ

Interest rates reach five-year high – and could keep going, says City
By Gary Duncan
READ

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)

n the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

Several stocks have printed a bearish engulfing. They are:
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) - the stock is in a congestion.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) - the stock is in a congestion.
3M Company (NYSE:MMM) - the stock is in a congestion.
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) - the stock is in a congestion.

McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) is developing a 14-bars congestion. Volatility is at the lowest level since last May. There is a setup to apply breakout techniques and exploit the increase in volatility and directionality that will occur in the short term.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI)

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) has developed an accumulation pattern at the support level of 3.60$. SEveral positive divergences of MACD have been printed since last May. A long up candle on 6 November may be the signal that the stock has the strength to brek out the 4.20$ resistance. There is a good up potential with objectives at 4.40$, 4.60$ and 4.80$. There is risk associated to this stock as SIRI during a strong up trend phase has managed only to produce a sideways move, not following the broder market move.

Merck & Co ((MRK)

Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK) printed on Wednesday a bearish candlestick pattern in coincidence with a negative divergence of MACD.

Broadcom Corp (BRCM)

I was wrong in my previous post about Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ:BRCM).
READ
I was expecting the stock to resume the downtrend based on a negative situation in the intermediate term. Insted, BRCM sustained by positive general market conditions has managed to develop another leg to the upside.
It is moving now within a channel slightly positively inclined and it is testing the upper trendline. In the intermediate term the situation is still not particularly positive, if you consider that the stock, after the sell off from 50$ to 22$ between March and July has recovered only partially the heavy losses. THat is the reason why I am still reluctant to choose BRCM as a long candidate in a phase where many other stocks are printing new highs.

NYSE News Link

NYSE News
READ

NYSE to Cut Staff by 17% After Archipelago Purchase
By Edgar Ortega
READ

NYSE Group Announces Workforce Reduction
READ

Program Trading Averaged 28.9 Percent of NYSE Volume during Oct. 23-27
READ

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE:BNI)
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (NYSE:DD)
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX)
Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:HET)
Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY)

Dow Jones Industrial Avg 30 ($INDU)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW)

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) has printed a negative divergence of MACD. It seems that range of negative days is increasing. I would not trade a retest of the previous high. My opinion is that a move to retest the 5$ level is more likely.

Performance

An update on sector performance during the past 4 months.
Technology continues to lead.
I continue to believe, however, that, unless something new emerges on the economy outlook fundamentals, defensive sectors should be favored in this phase.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings (XMSR)

XM Satellite Radio Holdings (NASDAQ:XMSR) has developed 2 consecutive and significant positive MACD divergences. The 27 October long up candle and Monday's up gap provide indications of a rebound toward the 14$ resistance and following to that the 15$ area.
THe pattern has to be considered a failure in case of closure of the gap to the downside.

CVS Corp (CVS)

CVS Corp (NYSE:CVS) prints a long up candle after a double low. MACD prints a positive divergence and the stock in the short term should test the closure of the gap at 31$.

NYSE Tick Indicator

Interesting links:

NYSE Tick - Statistical Analysis
READ

The Cumulative NYSE TICK: A Valuable Measure of Short-Term Sentiment
TRADERFEED
READ

The NYSE Tick Index and Candlesticks
TASC
By Tim Ord
READ

Trading With the NYSE TICK
TRADERFEED
READ

Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Two
TRADERFEED
READ

Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Three
TRADERFEED
READ

Intraday Trading With The TICK
By Christopher Terry
READ

Some articles on the topic of Trading with TICK on Trader Gav
READ

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

The Bandwidth Indicator is calculated subtracting the lower band from the upper band and then normalizing the result, after you divide it by the middle band.The width of the bands is expressed as a percent of the moving average. Using BandWidth, you can exploit one the Squeeze setup. When the bands get very narrow, you can expect a sharp expansion in volatility in the near future. A fall in volatility to extremely low levels suggests a sudden increase in volatility and a trend in the near future. The Squeeze is triggered when BandWidth falls to its lowest level in the past six months.

Here is a list of the Index stocks that are printing this setup:
American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG)
Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY)
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO)
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (NYSE:DD)
FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX)
Harrah's Entertainment Inc. (NYSE:HET)
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ)
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LEH)
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE:MDT)

Thoughts About Stock Message Boards

Stock message boards and chat rooms have been spreading at an increasing speed on the web during the past years. Yahoo Finance and many others, such as Stockhouse, MSN Money, Google Finance, etc. provide an environment where traders can exchange information and trading ideas on particular stocks in real time as the trading day develops. While personal ideas about companies are posted on message boards, often you find threads not really focused on the subject and sometimes even not-so-fair exchange of views. The medium itself is interesting as message boards represent a revolution in the way information can be shared among investors. They are becoming an increasingly popular forum for investors to share information. Threads are organized by trading subject or single stock. But, why does an individual decide to post a message about a company? Why would an investor publicly provide valuable information to other investors? May be because he or she has a position on the stock and wants to support the stock influencing other investors. If the stock is illiquid, this may also occur. The key point, however, is that investors and traders’ psychology brings individuals to share their uncertainties and hopes about their positions on the web with others individuals.
The SEC, on their website focuses on online bulletin boards, whether newsgroups, usenet, or web-based bulletin boards. The SEC warns that “While some messages may be true, many turn out to be bogus or even scams. Fraudsters often pump up a company or pretend to reveal "inside" information about upcoming announcements, new products, or lucrative contracts”.
The fact is that “you never know for certain who you are dealing with or whether they are credible because many bulletin boards allow users to hide their identity behind multiple aliases. People claiming to be unbiased observers who have carefully researched the company may actually be company insiders, large shareholders, or paid promoters. A single person can easily create the illusion of widespread interest in a small, thinly traded stock by posting a series of messages under various aliases”.
The phenomenom is so big that it is not possible to ignore the signs of activity on stock message boards. Boards may be seen as a way to monitor the investing public feelings. I am not sure about the benefits of posting on stock boards. Individuals who post there often have a strong bias. For sure, before following any type of investment idea, you have to analyze for yourself the pros and cons of your choice.

Procter & Gamble (PG)

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) has already printed 3 consecutive negative MACD divergences. Although you can have many divergences before a trend reversal materialize, risk of opening long positions is higher at this level. Prices are now developing a 4-bar congestion. I would not buy PG now. Should you already have an open position, I would look for an exit should prices break out to the downside.

CBOE Technology Index ($TXX)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

The Index has developed a distribution phase printing a decreasing MACD . Friday's session displays a long down candle indicating that prices in the short term will likely continue to the downside. I would not open long positions for the moment waiting for the Index to establish a support formation.

Six stocks have the close below the four moving averages. They are:
ADC Telecommunications (NASDAQ:ADCT)
Gateway Inc. (NYSE:GTW)
Linear Technology Corp (NASDAQ:LLTC)
Texas Instruments Inc (NYSE:TXN)
The Index has printed a bearixh engulfing together with a number of stocks. They are:
Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
EMC Corp (NYSE:EMC)
Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ:SUNW)
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX)
Texas Instruments Inc (NYSE:TXN)
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) has printed a dark cloud.

Oracle Corp (ORCL)

Oracle Corp (NASDAQ:ORCL) after printing an up gap has develop a distribution phase printing 2 consecutive negative divergences in coincidence with 2 short term tops. Friday's session has printed a long down candle indicating that prices in the short term will likely continue to the downside. Prices will try and close the gap remained so far open tooward the 16.50$ support.

Books - Brett Steenbarger - Enhancing Trader Performance: Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology

From Traderfeed about his new book:
"If my book accomplishes nothing else, I hope that it assists you in thinking about where your niche might lie, not just in trading, but in life. The days pass by quickly; life is too short to waste on anything that you're not passionate about and good at."

READ

Dow Jones Industrial Avg 30 ($INDU)

In the Figure, you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

You can see also the candlestick patterns printed.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)
have printed a bullish engulfing.
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) has printed a hanging man.

The Index has printed 5 consecutive down sessions characterized by low range. So far we have not seen a significant expansion to the downside and the uptrend is still strong. In the short term however several stocks have started a correction, which could continue in the next sessions.

Stocks Up Big In Post Market - Trade Ideas

Stocks Down Big In Post Market - Trade Ideas

Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE:CSC)
CA, Inc. (NYSE:CA)
On2 Technologies, Inc. (AMEX:ONT)
Chiquita Brands International, Inc. (NYSE:CQB)
Standard Motor Products, Inc. (NYSE:SMP)
Apollo Gold Corporation (USA) (AMEX:AGT)

Target Corp (TGT)

Target Corp (TGT), after a sideways move at the top has printed a turtle soup pattern associated to a negative divergence of MACD. Prices have printed a bearish formation and a down gap today. We will likely see lower prices in the short term in this time frame.

Federated Dept Stores (FD)

Federated Dept Stores (FD), after a negative MACD divergence associated to a prolonged congestion at the top, has printed 3 consecutive down closes and a down gap on today's session. Support at 39-39.70$ level. The pattern printed is bearish in the short term.It is likely to see lower prices in this time frame.

Motorola Inc (MOT)

Motorola Inc (MOT) is moving towards the support of the broadening formation, which has been developing during the past 3 months.

Stocks Up Big In Post Market - Trade Ideas

Eagle Materials, Inc. (NYSE:EXP)
Oceaneering International (NYSE:OII)
CEC Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:CEC)
Infineon Technologies AG (ADR) (NYSE:IFX)
United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI)
Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL)

Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q)

Qwest Communications International Inc. (Public, NYSE:Q) after an up gap on 25 October has printed an Evening Star pattern. This formation is bearish in the short-term. It is associated to a negative MACD divergence. Prices could move to try and close the gap.

Short-Term Trading

Thursday, November 30, 2006

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy(ETF) (PBW)

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX)

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Federated Dept Stores (FD)

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 100 Index 29 Nov

S&P 500 - Reversal Pattern

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)

Monday, November 27, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Bubbles

Reuters/Jeff CRB Non-Energy ER

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

Interesting Sunday Links

Saturday, November 25, 2006

S&P 500 - Reversal Pattern

US Dollar Plunge Links

Stock Markets Review 24 Nov - Emini

Cramer Picks 22 Nov

EarthLink, Inc. (ELNK)

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index - 24 Nov

Friday, November 24, 2006

Asset Class Performance

Interesting Links

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

Medtronic, Inc. (MDT)

Books - Stephen Bigalow - High Profit Candlestick Patterns

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index

Map Of The Market

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)

Up Big In Post Market

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index - S&P 400 Midcap

Low Volatility Setup - DJIA

Performance

General Motors Corporation (GM)

Monday, November 20, 2006

CBOE Technology Index ($TXX)

Interesting Links

Trading Magazines

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Google Inc (GOOG)

News Corporation (NWS)

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup

Interesting Links

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Low Volatility Setup - Nasdaq 100 Index

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

AMEX Semiconductor Index ($SIS)

Turtle Soup Plus One Setup - S&P 500 Index

Wendy's International (WEN)

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

Markets Link

Friday, November 17, 2006

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

AMEX Telecom Index ($PHN)

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Dow Jones Transportation ($TRAN)

Stock Market Commentary

HQuotes.com Equity Curve Random Generator

Trading Blog Links

GSTI Multimedia Networking Index ($GIP)

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Trading Blog Links

Low Volatility Setup - S&P 100 Index

CBOE Gold Index ($GOX)

Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)

Monday, November 13, 2006

Monday Links